Since about 9am yesterday, the Euro and it's mirror-twin Swisse have been strengthening against the US $. This has put both of those open trades back into the red. We'll see what develops from here.
The Formerly Great British Pound is looking extremely weak... and weak is good! We may get a OneNightStand short in GBP very soon.
GBP/JPY is still the standout with now over 540 pips in the green!
We have a full trading day ahead, plus the Sunday Asian session, so anything can happen. Let's hope it's positive for the USD, JPY, and EUR/CAD!
Current account equity: $187.76
Friday, February 26, 2010
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Looking even better...
We've triggered into that Cable short, which was the only FirstStrike trade yet to trigger.
Short 393 GBP/USD at 1.5340 with stoploss at 1.5527
For a nice change, every open trade is sitting profitable. The GBP/JPY short is still the runaway performer with 420 pips in the green! That's more like it...
I still watch with interest the apparent breakdown of the longstanding JPY - S&P 500 correlation. US equities were up pretty big yesterday, and so was the Yen. Maybe that old carry trade is truly broken.
Also interesting is the Euro long against the Loonie. The Loonie is falling more rapidly against the Greenback than is the Euro, so that trade is holding up and even has a few pips of profit. I hope that condition will persist through the weekend... because being long the Euro right now is a scary proposition. Then again... the best trades are usually the hardest to bear psychologically.
Current account equity: $182.21
Short 393 GBP/USD at 1.5340 with stoploss at 1.5527
For a nice change, every open trade is sitting profitable. The GBP/JPY short is still the runaway performer with 420 pips in the green! That's more like it...
I still watch with interest the apparent breakdown of the longstanding JPY - S&P 500 correlation. US equities were up pretty big yesterday, and so was the Yen. Maybe that old carry trade is truly broken.
Also interesting is the Euro long against the Loonie. The Loonie is falling more rapidly against the Greenback than is the Euro, so that trade is holding up and even has a few pips of profit. I hope that condition will persist through the weekend... because being long the Euro right now is a scary proposition. Then again... the best trades are usually the hardest to bear psychologically.
Current account equity: $182.21
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
Still looking good...
Even with this:
Short 476 EUR/CAD at 1.4163 stopped out at 1.4364 for a loss of -$4.17 or -2.9%
That holdover trade going bust means that we got:
Long 317 EUR/CAD at 1.4364 with stoploss at 1.4138
That trade is currently sitting profitably.
We've also triggered into 2 new trades:
Short 533 EUR/USD at 1.3525 with stoploss at 1.3663
Long 736 USD/CHF at 1.0831 with stoploss at 1.0731
Only Cable remains to be triggered, and we're about 85 pips away from shorting it.
So far, the GBP/JPY short is the standout performer, currently sitting with 192 pips of profits.
Current account equity: $154.12
Short 476 EUR/CAD at 1.4163 stopped out at 1.4364 for a loss of -$4.17 or -2.9%
That holdover trade going bust means that we got:
Long 317 EUR/CAD at 1.4364 with stoploss at 1.4138
That trade is currently sitting profitably.
We've also triggered into 2 new trades:
Short 533 EUR/USD at 1.3525 with stoploss at 1.3663
Long 736 USD/CHF at 1.0831 with stoploss at 1.0731
Only Cable remains to be triggered, and we're about 85 pips away from shorting it.
So far, the GBP/JPY short is the standout performer, currently sitting with 192 pips of profits.
Current account equity: $154.12
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Another day...
...another disappointment. At about 2:30 this morning, we had:
Long 489 AUD/USD at 0.9061 with stoploss at 0.8986
and a mere 4.5 hours later we had:
Long 489 AUD/USD at 0.9061 stopped out at 0.8986 for a loss of -$3.68 or -2.5%
In better news, the GBP/JPY short is sporting 110 pips of profit!
Also, we've triggered a short in USD/JPY, which is sitting slightly profitable as well.
Short 379 USD/JPY at 90.96 with stoploss at 91.93
That trade is against the trend, but the trend hasn't seemed too strong of late, so maybe it has a chance. One never knows...
Current account equity: $152.34
Long 489 AUD/USD at 0.9061 with stoploss at 0.8986
and a mere 4.5 hours later we had:
Long 489 AUD/USD at 0.9061 stopped out at 0.8986 for a loss of -$3.68 or -2.5%
In better news, the GBP/JPY short is sporting 110 pips of profit!
Also, we've triggered a short in USD/JPY, which is sitting slightly profitable as well.
Short 379 USD/JPY at 90.96 with stoploss at 91.93
That trade is against the trend, but the trend hasn't seemed too strong of late, so maybe it has a chance. One never knows...
Current account equity: $152.34
Monday, February 22, 2010
What a Pro Does Next...
After a uniquely bad week, the temptation to alter strategies is huge. 10 losses for 12 trades is very tough to stomach, because humans are wired to weigh short term trends heavier than long term results. Great idea on the savanna... terrible idea in the markets. (Is that a lion behind that rock? It was the last two times!)
There's only one thing to be done, and that is to take the next trades as they come... in the planned sizes.
The EUR/CAD short is a holdover from last week, and is sitting mercifully with a small profit.
The next new trade to trigger is:
Short 628 GBP/JPY at 141.06 with stoploss at 142.23
Let's see what happens!
Current account equity: $145.64
There's only one thing to be done, and that is to take the next trades as they come... in the planned sizes.
The EUR/CAD short is a holdover from last week, and is sitting mercifully with a small profit.
The next new trade to trigger is:
Short 628 GBP/JPY at 141.06 with stoploss at 142.23
Let's see what happens!
Current account equity: $145.64
Results for the Week of 2/14-2/21
Beginning equity: $191.28
Currency Units P/L Equity
USD/JPY 462 -2.34 188.93
USD/JPY 1868 -10.61 178.32
EUR/USD 388 -4.78 173.56
USD/CHF 546 -4.46 169.10
GBP/USD 246 -4.14 164.96
GBP/USD 1040 -9.62 155.34
USD/CHF 410 -3.81 151.56
GBP/USD 385 -3.06 148.44
USD/JPY 350 -1.64 146.80
EUR/CAD 385 -2.23 144.57
AUD/USD 389 1.73 146.30
GBP/JPY 179 0.88 147.18
Currency Units P/L Equity
USD/JPY 462 -2.34 188.93
USD/JPY 1868 -10.61 178.32
EUR/USD 388 -4.78 173.56
USD/CHF 546 -4.46 169.10
GBP/USD 246 -4.14 164.96
GBP/USD 1040 -9.62 155.34
USD/CHF 410 -3.81 151.56
GBP/USD 385 -3.06 148.44
USD/JPY 350 -1.64 146.80
EUR/CAD 385 -2.23 144.57
AUD/USD 389 1.73 146.30
GBP/JPY 179 0.88 147.18
Friday, February 19, 2010
Getting Even Tougher
Yow! Not only was that Pound short wiped out very quickly (~5 hrs), but Cable went on to new lows without me! That was another big fat position to lose straight away... but that's the nature of this game.
Short 1040 GBP/USD at 1.5579 stopped out at 1.5671 for a loss of -$9.62 or -5.83%
Also, a new FirstStrikePlus trade has triggered... a short in EUR/CAD.
Short 476 EUR/CAD at 1.4163 with stoploss at 1.4364
That trade is not looking great so far...sitting at around -45 points just now.
OneNightStand trades have also begun to trigger... all sitting at losses just now as well.
Short 385 GBP/USD at 1.5403 with stoploss at 1.5503
Long 410 USD/CHF at 1.0892 with stoploss at 1.0792
It's pretty much been sheer torture over the past couple of weeks. It's not the least bit unusual when using a strategy which can double an account in a couple of days. It's very painful, but I press on nonetheless. When one is ready to give up, the strategy is usually about to start producing profits again. That's trading, and that's why so few people are successful at it.
Current account equity: $149.48
Short 1040 GBP/USD at 1.5579 stopped out at 1.5671 for a loss of -$9.62 or -5.83%
Also, a new FirstStrikePlus trade has triggered... a short in EUR/CAD.
Short 476 EUR/CAD at 1.4163 with stoploss at 1.4364
That trade is not looking great so far...sitting at around -45 points just now.
OneNightStand trades have also begun to trigger... all sitting at losses just now as well.
Short 385 GBP/USD at 1.5403 with stoploss at 1.5503
Long 410 USD/CHF at 1.0892 with stoploss at 1.0792
It's pretty much been sheer torture over the past couple of weeks. It's not the least bit unusual when using a strategy which can double an account in a couple of days. It's very painful, but I press on nonetheless. When one is ready to give up, the strategy is usually about to start producing profits again. That's trading, and that's why so few people are successful at it.
Current account equity: $149.48
Thursday, February 18, 2010
What a Difference a Day Makes
The USD experienced a rally yesterday, wiping out several of the open trades, and triggering a short in the GBP. It has been tough on the account equity this past few weeks. I never said it was easy.
Long 388 EUR/USD at 1.3687 stopped out at 1.3564 for a loss of -$4.78 or -2.68%
Short 546 USD/CHF at 1.0730 stopped out at 1.0818 for a loss of -$4.46 or -2.57%
Long 246 GBP/USD at 1.5747 stopped out at 1.5542 for a loss of -$4.14 or -2.45%
The Pound long was a holdover from last week, so when it stopped out, a new trade in the opposite direction was triggered.
Short 1040 GBP/USD at 1.5579 with stoploss at $1.5671
I hope the USD shows some more strength here, but I will definitely take the loss if that is what is to be.
Current account equity: $163.69 (Ouch!)
Long 388 EUR/USD at 1.3687 stopped out at 1.3564 for a loss of -$4.78 or -2.68%
Short 546 USD/CHF at 1.0730 stopped out at 1.0818 for a loss of -$4.46 or -2.57%
Long 246 GBP/USD at 1.5747 stopped out at 1.5542 for a loss of -$4.14 or -2.45%
The Pound long was a holdover from last week, so when it stopped out, a new trade in the opposite direction was triggered.
Short 1040 GBP/USD at 1.5579 with stoploss at $1.5671
I hope the USD shows some more strength here, but I will definitely take the loss if that is what is to be.
Current account equity: $163.69 (Ouch!)
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
The Best Laid Plans...
...are often quickly dashed to pieces by the markets. The USD/JPY short didn't survive the morning. We've experienced quite a little rally in risk-assets. With the massive rally in stocks, I would have been surprised if a long Yen position had survived, even considering the recent changes in the Yen's relationships. The USD/JPY used to be very strongly correlated with the S&P, but that correlation has been noticeably breaking down of late. Intermarket relationships do change... even longstanding ones. It's a new era!
Short 1868 USD/JPY at 89.75 stopped out at 90.26 for a loss of -$10.61 or -5.62%
That was a big fat position to lose straight away... but that's trading.
In other news, the Long EUR/USD trade has triggered, and is sitting nicely profitable so far. There's still time for a reversal of fortune, but for now we're looking good.
Long 388 EUR/USD at 1.3687 with stoploss at 1.3564
Go Euro! (At least until Monday at 1am!)
All open trades are currently profitable, which is a nice place to be for a change.
Current account equity: $188.87
Short 1868 USD/JPY at 89.75 stopped out at 90.26 for a loss of -$10.61 or -5.62%
That was a big fat position to lose straight away... but that's trading.
In other news, the Long EUR/USD trade has triggered, and is sitting nicely profitable so far. There's still time for a reversal of fortune, but for now we're looking good.
Long 388 EUR/USD at 1.3687 with stoploss at 1.3564
Go Euro! (At least until Monday at 1am!)
All open trades are currently profitable, which is a nice place to be for a change.
Current account equity: $188.87
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
And the New Week Begins
We have several holdover trades from last week, which actually tends to bode well for them. The longer a trade stays open, the larger the chance it will end up profitable. Those trades are Long GBP/USD and Long GBP/JPY.
We've also had 3 new trades trigger so far this week:
Long 389 AUD/USD at 0.8961 with stoploss at 0.8838
Short 546 USD/CHF at 1.0730 with stoploss at 1.0818
Short 1868 USD/JPY at 89.75 with stoploss at 90.26
Going into the week, we were Long the USD/JPY from last week... but since the pair didn't wander too far last week, the triggers for the new trades for the week pulled in very close to the price action. I fully expected the change in direction to occur. Often, these are the best trades this strategy offers. We haven't had a strong breakout of the Yen's tight range yet... but if one happens, we will be in the chips!
The other two new trades are not showing much movement. Oz is slightly profitable, and Swissie is slightly negative.
Current account equity: $181.52
We've also had 3 new trades trigger so far this week:
Long 389 AUD/USD at 0.8961 with stoploss at 0.8838
Short 546 USD/CHF at 1.0730 with stoploss at 1.0818
Short 1868 USD/JPY at 89.75 with stoploss at 90.26
Going into the week, we were Long the USD/JPY from last week... but since the pair didn't wander too far last week, the triggers for the new trades for the week pulled in very close to the price action. I fully expected the change in direction to occur. Often, these are the best trades this strategy offers. We haven't had a strong breakout of the Yen's tight range yet... but if one happens, we will be in the chips!
The other two new trades are not showing much movement. Oz is slightly profitable, and Swissie is slightly negative.
Current account equity: $181.52
Results for the Week of 2/7-2/14
Beginning equity: $201.70
Currency Units P/L Equity
EUR/CAD 401 -4.75 196.96
EUR/USD 285 -5.05 191.93
USD/CHF 423 -4.68 187.24
AUD/USD 358 3.46 190.66
EUR/CAD 471 0.98 191.64
EUR/USD 468 0.37 191.27
USD/CHF 494 0.01 191.28
Currency Units P/L Equity
EUR/CAD 401 -4.75 196.96
EUR/USD 285 -5.05 191.93
USD/CHF 423 -4.68 187.24
AUD/USD 358 3.46 190.66
EUR/CAD 471 0.98 191.64
EUR/USD 468 0.37 191.27
USD/CHF 494 0.01 191.28
Wednesday, February 10, 2010
Three New Trades Triggered
...and all five existing trades are in the red! This sort of action is totally typical of this system. It is quite curious to me that the bounce in US equities seems to be over almost before it began. It is still possible that we'll get a higher bounce, but so far, the markets are looking very weak. The Formerly Great British Pound in particular has reversed quite hard since yesterday, along with most other risk appetite correlated assets. So here we are... where we go from here is anyone's guess, but I'm guessing that US Dollar-shorts will be showing more losses. Luckily By design, my trend-filter has kept my position size smaller by 50% on these counter-trend trades, so the losses will sting less if they are realized. That's what trading is really all about... managing losses.
Long 285 EUR/USD at 1.3775 with stoploss at 1.3598
Long 358 AUD/USD at 0.8771 with stoploss at 0.8630
Long 246 GBP/USD at 1.5747 with stoploss at 1.5542
Current account equity: $192.33
Long 285 EUR/USD at 1.3775 with stoploss at 1.3598
Long 358 AUD/USD at 0.8771 with stoploss at 0.8630
Long 246 GBP/USD at 1.5747 with stoploss at 1.5542
Current account equity: $192.33
Tuesday, February 9, 2010
The New Week Begins:
We've kicked off with two trades being triggered so far. Both are in the opposite direction of last week's major action. We are due for a bounce in most instruments...in fact overdue! Still, crashes often happen from oversold levels. We shall see.
Long 401 EUR/CAD at 1.4593 with stoploss at 1.4568
Short 423 USD/CHF at 1.0663 with stoploss at 1.0782
Current account equity: $200.42
Long 401 EUR/CAD at 1.4593 with stoploss at 1.4568
Short 423 USD/CHF at 1.0663 with stoploss at 1.0782
Current account equity: $200.42
Last Week's Results...
Currency Units P/L Equity
AUD/USD 523 -5.46 211.98
GBP/USD 915 -10.94 201.02
EUR/USD 407 -5.42 195.50
GBP/JPY 371 -6.02 189.47
USD/CHF 494 -5.12 184.34
USD/JPY 759 -6.08 178.25
AUD/USD 445 -4.45 173.51
GBP/JPY 386 -0.10 173.30
EUR/CAD 445 3.30 176.60
EUR/USD 445 1.13 177.73
GBP/USD 445 5.40 183.13
EUR/CAD 784 18.58 201.70
AUD/USD 523 -5.46 211.98
GBP/USD 915 -10.94 201.02
EUR/USD 407 -5.42 195.50
GBP/JPY 371 -6.02 189.47
USD/CHF 494 -5.12 184.34
USD/JPY 759 -6.08 178.25
AUD/USD 445 -4.45 173.51
GBP/JPY 386 -0.10 173.30
EUR/CAD 445 3.30 176.60
EUR/USD 445 1.13 177.73
GBP/USD 445 5.40 183.13
EUR/CAD 784 18.58 201.70
Friday, February 5, 2010
Swissie Gives Up the Ghost
It wasn't looking good for any short USDollar plays, so I fully expected this:
Short 494 USD/CHF at 1.0526 stopped out at 1.0636 for a loss of -$5.13 or -2.71%
With US equities in the tank all day, this next event isn't too surprising either, painful though it was.
Long 759 USD/JPY at 90.77 stopped out at 90.05 for a loss of -$6.09 or -3.3%
March lows here we come? I think so... In fact, I think we're staring into 1931 all over again, which means there will be a historic buying opportunity in a couple of years.
The EUR/CAD short is looking great... holding up with over 150 pips in profits... Nice!
OneNightStand trades have begun triggering:
Short 445 EUR/USD at 1.3667 with stoploss at 1.3767
Short 445 GBP/USD at 1.5715 with stoploss at 1.5815
With the big NFP report out in half an hour, anything can happen... too bad I'll be on my way to work when it comes out!
Current account equity: $189.41
Short 494 USD/CHF at 1.0526 stopped out at 1.0636 for a loss of -$5.13 or -2.71%
With US equities in the tank all day, this next event isn't too surprising either, painful though it was.
Long 759 USD/JPY at 90.77 stopped out at 90.05 for a loss of -$6.09 or -3.3%
March lows here we come? I think so... In fact, I think we're staring into 1931 all over again, which means there will be a historic buying opportunity in a couple of years.
The EUR/CAD short is looking great... holding up with over 150 pips in profits... Nice!
OneNightStand trades have begun triggering:
Short 445 EUR/USD at 1.3667 with stoploss at 1.3767
Short 445 GBP/USD at 1.5715 with stoploss at 1.5815
With the big NFP report out in half an hour, anything can happen... too bad I'll be on my way to work when it comes out!
Current account equity: $189.41
Thursday, February 4, 2010
More losses roll in.
The USDollar has turned higher again, and that has put two of this week's trades out of their misery. The USD/CHF short is hanging by a thread, but I fully expect it to get wiped out too.
Long 407 EUR/USD at 1.3980 stopped out at 1.3847 for a loss of -$5.47 or -2.72%
Long 371 GBP/JPY at 145.06 stopped out at 143.59 for a loss of -$6.03 or -3.08%
The EUR/CAD short is doing very well, with over 140 pips of profit. I expect to be closing that one with a profit on Monday morning... but we shall see.
The USD/JPY trade has come within 2 pips of being stopped out, and was slightly profitable when I started this entry, but has now slipped back into negative territory. Anything can happen... especially with the Number of All Numbers coming out tomorrow morning. Stay tuned...
Current account equity: $193.86
Long 407 EUR/USD at 1.3980 stopped out at 1.3847 for a loss of -$5.47 or -2.72%
Long 371 GBP/JPY at 145.06 stopped out at 143.59 for a loss of -$6.03 or -3.08%
The EUR/CAD short is doing very well, with over 140 pips of profit. I expect to be closing that one with a profit on Monday morning... but we shall see.
The USD/JPY trade has come within 2 pips of being stopped out, and was slightly profitable when I started this entry, but has now slipped back into negative territory. Anything can happen... especially with the Number of All Numbers coming out tomorrow morning. Stay tuned...
Current account equity: $193.86
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Getting worse...
The short GBP trade was stopped out yesterday morning as the USD continues its pullback from recent highs.
Short 915 GBP/USD at 1.5867 stopped out at 1.5986 for a loss of -$10.96 or -5.17%
The remaining two FirstStrike trades have been triggered... both of them looking for further Dollar weakness.
Short 494 USD/CHF at 1.0526 with stoploss at 1.0636
Long 407 EUR/USD at 1.3980 with stoploss at1.3847
Other trades holding up with small to medium losses and gains. (so far)
Current account equity: $201.18
Short 915 GBP/USD at 1.5867 stopped out at 1.5986 for a loss of -$10.96 or -5.17%
The remaining two FirstStrike trades have been triggered... both of them looking for further Dollar weakness.
Short 494 USD/CHF at 1.0526 with stoploss at 1.0636
Long 407 EUR/USD at 1.3980 with stoploss at1.3847
Other trades holding up with small to medium losses and gains. (so far)
Current account equity: $201.18
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Not so hot...
I've already been stopped into, and out of a trade in the Aussie $. Oz had a massive reversal yesterday, dropping about 120 pips in just 15 minutes starting at 10:30 pm EST. Apparently the RBA (evil Australian equivalent of the evil Fed) left interest rates alone, when markets were expecting a .25% increase. Well... you'll have that...
Long 523 AUD/USD at 0.8912, stopped out at 0.8808 for a loss of $5.46, or -2.51%
In other news, the EUR/CAD short is looking good, currently sporting 76 pips of profit.
The good news pretty much ends there. Three other trades have been triggered and are struggling with losses so far.
Short 915 GBP/USD at 1.5867 with stoploss at 1.5986
Long 759 USD/JPY at 90.77 with stoploss at 90.05
Long 371 GBP/JPY at 145.06 with stoploss at 143.59
Current account equity: $204.85
Long 523 AUD/USD at 0.8912, stopped out at 0.8808 for a loss of $5.46, or -2.51%
In other news, the EUR/CAD short is looking good, currently sporting 76 pips of profit.
The good news pretty much ends there. Three other trades have been triggered and are struggling with losses so far.
Short 915 GBP/USD at 1.5867 with stoploss at 1.5986
Long 759 USD/JPY at 90.77 with stoploss at 90.05
Long 371 GBP/JPY at 145.06 with stoploss at 143.59
Current account equity: $204.85
Monday, February 1, 2010
New week ahead...
That was a nice way to start off this trading campaign...
+8.73% for the week!
The EUR/CAD short slipped out of profitable status, so that trade is held over into this week. The 1st trade to trigger so far has been the GBP/USD short. Not looking too healthy so far, but it's early...
Short 915 GBP/USD at 1.5867 with stoploss at 1.5986
Current account equity: $213.34
+8.73% for the week!
The EUR/CAD short slipped out of profitable status, so that trade is held over into this week. The 1st trade to trigger so far has been the GBP/USD short. Not looking too healthy so far, but it's early...
Short 915 GBP/USD at 1.5867 with stoploss at 1.5986
Current account equity: $213.34
And here are the results!
Currency Units P/L Equity
| USD/CHF | 471 | 2.2002 | 185.29 | ||||||||||||||
| AUD/USD | 471 | 2.3715 | 187.66 | ||||||||||||||
| EUR/USD | 471 | 1.4332 | 189.09 | ||||||||||||||
| EUR/USD | 649 | 10.7947 | 199.89 | ||||||||||||||
| USD/CHF | 933 | 11.8328 | 211.72 | ||||||||||||||
| AUD/USD | 421 | 5.7614 | 217.48 |
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