Friday, December 31, 2010

Two Long, Interesting Years Ago

I ran across this while looking through some old files, and I found it appropriate for the end of a year even though it wasn't originally composed for such purposes. On November 8, 2008, Barry Ritholtz asked the readers of his BigPicture blog what they were thinking about just after the US Presidential election. This was my response: (The Tuesday referenced was 11/11/08, Veteran's Day, when the NYSE pauses trading for a minute of silence at 11am.)

What is on your minds? What say ye?


Interesting question. The answer is that it's the same set of things that have been on my mind for the past several years. Mostly, I wonder how so many people believe so many contradictory stupidities and manage to avoid killing themselves while making a bowl of Froot Loops in the morning. On the one hand, the irrationality of my fellow humans is why I trade the markets, so I have mixed feelings about a sudden mass outbreak of Reason... but then again, if man were rational in all aspects of his life, I think humans would have colonized a good deal of the Galaxy several centuries and probably millennia ago. Nevertheless, I am not the least bit hopeful (worried?) that man's nature will change for the better in the next few years. (Ray Kurzweil thinks 2029 may be a big year in that department. I'm skeptical, but intrigued and watchful.)
I don't know much, and the things I do know are things that most people would rather not believe. Worse, they seem willing to bear any hardship and/or inflict any misery upon others in order to avoid believing them. Chief among these unpopular beliefs, and the main one from which they all proceed is handed down from a guy much smarter than me:

One cannot say of something that it is and that it is not, in the same respect, and at the same time.
-Aristotle

One who truly believes this is in for no end of trouble with his fellows. It means being at irreconcilable odds with just about everyone at one time or another. Consider the sum of two and two. It is always exactly four, and most people seem to agree... until it's time to talk about bailouts, taxes, 'spreading the wealth', etc. Consider the slave. A person who is forced against his will to work for another is a slave, regardless of the self-serving pronouncements of some black-robed buffoon. That will be a very popular sentiment on the floor of the NYSE at 11 o'clock this Tuesday, let me tell you.

So in the coming years, I expect to continue to be endlessly fascinated and frustrated by the behavior of individuals alone and in groups. I expect to have more proof that all governments are simply large gangs of liars, thieves, and killers with legions of apologists. (Stop at any time, as I need no further proof, thank you.) I expect to see more people getting what they deserve, along with other people getting what they do not deserve, in spite of what anyone feels or thinks about either. I expect to see low prices get lower, and high prices get higher...until they don't. In short, I expect more of the same, but perhaps from different angles, because while the landscape may look different, it is still populated by the same terrible, wonderful flawed beings. The more things Change...

Be careful out there.

-end quote-

Saturday, May 15, 2010

So much action...

...and so little time to talk about it! Since my recent career change, I don't have as much free time for blogging. That will change eventually, but right now I'm not in front of my home computer nearly as much during the week.
 Yes, I was in front of the screen on Black Thursday. The volatility was truly astounding. I had around 300 pips in profit on the EUR/CAD short, which got wiped out in about 30 minutes. At one point during the wild ride, my equity was all the way back to $130... and the gains were nearly all given back. That is a hard thing to watch, but it is not unusual at all in the markets other than the fact that it happened in the space of a few hours.
 Sarkozy, that little French runt, seems to have been run over by we 'evil speculators' this week... and nothing could please me more! Of course, like all good people I despise all politicians everywhere... but when these jackals make comments specifically directed at us currency traders... I definitely bring the hate.
 It was quite a while before we got any trades this week, because the ranges were so blown-out wide. Consequently several of the position sizes are quite small. Even so, the open trades are all looking pretty good, and I should be booking some nice profits on Monday morning if nothing too dramatic happens over the weekend. (...too dramatic in the wrong direction, I should say.)

Current account equity: $119.99

Results for the Week of 5/2 - 5/9

Beginning equity: $89.86

Currency        Units   P/L    Equity
EUR/CAD     115    -1.49    88.37
GBP/JPY       256    -4.78    83.59
USD/JPY       635    -4.82    78.72
EUR/CAD      391    -4.25    74.40
GBP/USD      186    -1.87    72.48
USD/CHF      499    5.27    77.58
EUR/USD      372    7.68    85.25
AUD/USD      297    4.68    89.93
GBP/USD      151    3.67    93.61

Results for the Week of 4/25 - 5/2

Beginning equity: $91.47

Currency        Units   P/L    Equity
AUD/USD     316    -2.31    89.01
USD/JPY     207    -2.44    86.57
USD/CHF     459    0.50    86.98
EUR/USD     342    1.36    88.34
GBP/JPY     106    0.55    88.89
GBP/USD     203    2.05    90.94
USD/JPY     208    -1.08    89.86

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Resting No More...

With the recent downgrades of European debt, we've had some motion in the markets which has caused some trades to get triggered. Most everything is looking profitable except the USD/JPY short, and we've yet to get a EUR/CAD trade since last week's range was so wide. 'Tis only Wednesday, and anything can happen... especially with the many moron-gorilla governments throwing their evil weights around. Here are the open trades so far:

Short 106 GBP/JPY at 143.69 with stoploss at 145.85
Short 203 GBP/USD at 1.5345 with stoploss at 1.5458
Short 316 AUD/USD at 0.9224 with stoploss at 0.9296
Short 207 USD/JPY at 93.35  with stoploss at 94.46
Short 342 EUR/USD at 1.3268 with stoploss at 1.3401
Long 459 USD/CHF at 1.0819 with stoploss at 1.0719

Can we say "Looking for Dollar strength?"

Current account equity: $105.04

Monday, April 26, 2010

Markets at rest...

Last week ended up shaping up very nicely, even with several losses. The standout performers were short EUR/CAD and long USD/JPY. The winning trades outweighed the losses... and that's the plan! So far, there have been no new trades opened. Last week's ranges were quite wide in several pairs, so it can take some time for the price action to work its way towards the triggers.
 Being flat gives one some time to relax... there's no hurry, since new positions will doubtless be opening soon and the hand-wringing can begin anew.

Current account equity: $91.47

Results for the Week of 4/18 - 4/25

Beginning equity: 80.66

Currency          Units    P/L      Equity
GBP/USD        271    -2.05    78.61
GBP/JPY         136    -2.19     76.43
USD/CHF        382    -1.93    74.48
EUR/CAD        178    -1.79    72.77
AUD/USD        715    -3.96    68.80
EUR/CAD        379    10.98    79.65
USD/JPY         551       9.25   88.90
EUR/USD        469       1.77   90.66
USD/JPY         172       0.81   91.47