Resting No More...

With the recent downgrades of European debt, we've had some motion in the markets which has caused some trades to get triggered. Most everything is looking profitable except the USD/JPY short, and we've yet to get a EUR/CAD trade since last week's range was so wide. 'Tis only Wednesday, and anything can happen... especially with the many moron-gorilla governments throwing their evil weights around. Here are the open trades so far:

Short 106 GBP/JPY at 143.69 with stoploss at 145.85
Short 203 GBP/USD at 1.5345 with stoploss at 1.5458
Short 316 AUD/USD at 0.9224 with stoploss at 0.9296
Short 207 USD/JPY at 93.35  with stoploss at 94.46
Short 342 EUR/USD at 1.3268 with stoploss at 1.3401
Long 459 USD/CHF at 1.0819 with stoploss at 1.0719

Can we say "Looking for Dollar strength?"

Current account equity: $105.04

Markets at rest...

Last week ended up shaping up very nicely, even with several losses. The standout performers were short EUR/CAD and long USD/JPY. The winning trades outweighed the losses... and that's the plan! So far, there have been no new trades opened. Last week's ranges were quite wide in several pairs, so it can take some time for the price action to work its way towards the triggers.
 Being flat gives one some time to relax... there's no hurry, since new positions will doubtless be opening soon and the hand-wringing can begin anew.

Current account equity: $91.47

Results for the Week of 4/18 - 4/25

Beginning equity: 80.66

Currency          Units    P/L      Equity
GBP/USD        271    -2.05    78.61
GBP/JPY         136    -2.19     76.43
USD/CHF        382    -1.93    74.48
EUR/CAD        178    -1.79    72.77
AUD/USD        715    -3.96    68.80
EUR/CAD        379    10.98    79.65
USD/JPY         551       9.25   88.90
EUR/USD        469       1.77   90.66
USD/JPY         172       0.81   91.47

Thank You, Bank of Canada!

The micro-mis-managers of the Loonie today signaled that they'll be raising interest rates, and traders are taking the opportunity to bid up the CAD. The Canadian currency has risen over parity with its beleaguered southern counterpart once again. Let's see if it can stay there. I am no fan of fiat currency in general, but I will say that the Loonie is a somewhat less deeply flawed currency than is the US Dollar.
 Seditious musings aside, let's look at how this turn of events has affected the account equity...

As of last week, we were short the EUR/CAD at 1.3643. It was only about 19 pips from being stopped out yesterday morning, but is now sporting 215 pips in profit. Nice!

Two additional trades have triggered since the last update, and both are doing well...

Long 715 AUD/USD at 0.9238 with stoploss at 0.9182
Long 551 USD/JPY at 92.60 with stoploss at 91.87

Also, the long USD/CHF trade was stopped out at 1.0627 for a loss of -$1.93 or -2.53%.

So far, things are looking pretty good... which is always subject to change.

Current account equity: $92.32

Starting The Week Off Right...

...with some losses. That's what we get paid for in this game. It doesn't seem like it, but the only way to win is to take the losses when you're supposed to. It's hard... which is why the winning traders are so rare.

So far, I'm holding on to one carryover short in EUR/CAD from last week. Two trades were triggered and stopped out as follows:

Short 271 GBP/USD at 1.5212 stopped out at 1.5287 for a loss of -$2.05 or -2.54%
Short 136 GBP/JPY at 139.43 stopped out at 140.91 for a loss of -$2.19 or -2.72%

The third trade, long the USD/CHF at 1.0680 is sitting with a 36 pip loss, and will be stopped out if we get down to 1.0627.

Here I am, at a new equity low for the campaign. Nothing to do but press on...

Current account equity: $72.32

Results for the Week of 4/11 - 4/18

Beginning equity: 90.50


Currency    Units            P/L         Equity
USD/CHF        263       -2.00      88.38
GBP/JPY        101       -2.58       85.80
USD/JPY        597       -4.58       81.22
AUD/USD        292       -2.12     79.02
GBP/USD        402       -4.25      74.78
EUR/USD        428        6.03      80.66

Freakin' Greek Week!

So those profligate Greeks are getting their bailout... seems like they announce the same thing every few days, and it's an excuse to run the Euro up a few hundred pips. The open trades were looking great going into Friday morning. Things just got worse from there especially with Sunday evening's blowout rally in EUR. Sometimes it's just my turn to be on the wrong side of such moves... but it still isn't any fun. What had been looking like a nicely profitable week turned into a marginally losing week. Bummer.
 We have the holdover GBP/JPY short from last week. It's not looking too healthy, but it hasn't been stopped out yet...
Otherwise, here are the trades that have been opened so far:

Long 263 USD/CHF at 1.0614 with stoploss at 1.0534
Short 379 EUR/CAD at 1.3643 with stoploss at 1.3755
Short 428 EUR/USD at 1.3612 with stoploss at 1.3711
Short 402 GBP/USD at 1.5406 with stoploss at 1.5511
Short 292 AUD/USD at 0.9291 with stoploss at 0.9363

Nothing to do but keep taking the trades as they come...

Current account equity: $89.57

Results for the Week of 4/4 - 4/11

Beginning equity: 96.48

Currency   Units               P/L     Equity
AUD/USD       431       -2.45    94.01
GBP/USD       312       -4.86    89.14
EUR/USD       583       -5.36    83.83
USD/CHF       242       -2.29    81.58
EUR/CAD       612       -4.83    76.75
AUD/USD       861       7.80     84.55
USD/JPY       234       1.44       85.99
GBP/USD       222       3.62      89.61
AUD/USD       222       0.89     90.50

High Drama in Cable

Boy if this isn't just an awful looking trade so far! The entry got triggered and the trade was profitable for less than 5 minutes. It came within 4 pips of being stopped out. It headed back towards profitability, and has now gone back towards getting stopped out yet again. Will it survive? Stay tuned...

Current account equity: $108.73

So We're Taking 2 in the Aussie This Week...

The strategy I trade can sometimes throw curves... We had a somewhat small range of 140 pips in the AUD/USD last week. That makes the breakout points rather close at only +/- 42 pips from the open. We got triggered into the short AUD trade a little after Midnight EDT, and then we were promptly stopped out about 17 minutes later. Then about 2.5 hours later, the long trade got triggered. I don't have anything set up to alert me while I'm asleep that trades have occurred. I could, but I'd rather have the sleep. I don't worry about situations like this, because it is rare and the effect of these sorts of happenings will tend to get smoothed out over the course of thousands of trades. Actually, the 2nd trigger in this strategy has an edge as well, and you could design a profitable system to take both trades. You'd have to do it consistently to extract the edge... not just when you happen to trigger into it like I just did.

 So here we are with the first realized loss of the week:

Short 431 AUD/USD at 0.9165 stopped out at 0.9221 for a loss of -$2.45 or -2.54%

 Next, we have several trades which have triggered and are sitting with a mix of profits and losses:

Short 612 EUR/CAD at 1.3556 with stoploss at 1.3635
Short 583 EUR/USD at 1.3445 with stoploss at 1.3528
Long 861 AUD/USD at 0.9249 with stoploss at 0.9193
Long 242 USD/CHF at 1.0677 with stoploss at 1.0577
Short 101 GBP/JPY at 142.23 with stoploss at 144.61
Short 312 GBP/USD at 1.5135 with stoploss at 1.5290

Only USD/JPY remains to be triggered, and we're about 30 pips from shorting it. Anything can happen... it's the currency market, Baby!

Current account equity: $105.52

Booking Some Profits For a Change!

It's not always pain and misery... just most of the time! We may have seen a near-term top in the US Dollar. 3 of this week's winning trades were bets against the Greenback.

One can never know, but hopefully we've seen the equity lows for this trading campaign. An equity reading of $74.72 represents a $125.28 realized loss, or -62.64% drawdown from initial equity. That is much more than most people can handle emotionally. It is easy to be sanguine about such fluctuations in equity when they are not dealing with life-altering amounts of money. Will it be so easy to weather these storms when we're dealing with a few more digits to the left of the decimal point? Going from $200,000 to $74,720 will probably feel a lot different... but then again, perhaps not, since the buildup to those levels will likely take a few years. We shall see as time goes on.

 So far, only one trade has been triggered to kick off the new week. It's yet another short of the EUR/CAD... a trade which has been working since December. Let us hope that this is not the week for it to stop!

 Short 612 EUR/CAD at 1.3556 with stoploss at 1.3635

Current account equity: $98.46

Results for the Week of 3/28 - 4/4

Beginning equity:         80.82

Currency      Units    P/L         Equity
EUR/USD     356    -4.08         76.75
EUR/USD     167    -2.03         74.72
USD/CHF     248    0.34         75.14
AUD/USD     513    3.35         78.50
GBP/USD     161    3.79         82.29
GBP/JPY     141    7.06         89.35
EUR/CAD     378    2.69         92.04
USD/JPY     323    2.98         95.02
USD/JPY     173    0.74         95.76
GBP/JPY     170    0.72         96.48

Results for the Week of 3/21 - 3/28

Beginning equity:    89.76

Currency          Units      P/L     Equity
USD/CHF        410    -2.12    87.64
AUD/USD        360    -2.28    85.35
EUR/CAD        150    -2.22    83.12
USD/JPY          534    -2.50    80.63
GBP/USD         139    -2.25    78.38
GBP/JPY          134      2.52    80.82