More Pain, Little Gain...

Wow! Drawdowns like this are just awful. The unfortunate fact is that the person who wants the largest and fastest gains must put up with the deepest drawdowns. I've hit a -62% so far. Actually, it a little more than that, since the equity high was more than $200.
 Why has this been happening? Simply a lack of a trend in most of the pairs I trade. Notice that the EUR/CAD trades have been producing profits... and notice that that pair has been hitting new lows all along the last few weeks. The EUR itself has still been stuck in a range.... first breaking one way, and then turning back around to challenge the opposite side of its range... only to be rejected yet again.
 At some point, the markets will pick a direction and go... once most of the breakout traders are completely demoralized. I will not be demoralized... because I've seen this sort of thing too many times.

So far this week, we've been whacked twice already... once in the AUD/USD, and once in the USD/CHF. Four other trades are currently open... all are currently sporting losses.

Short 534 USD/JPY at 90.20 with stoploss at 90.62
Long 139 GBP/USD at 1.5062 with stoploss at 1.4901
Long 150 EUR/CAD at 1.3840 with stoploss at 1.3690
Long 134 GBP/JPY at 136.50 with stoploss at 134.82

Current account equity: $81.40

Results for the Week of 3/14-3/21

Beginning equity: $102.63

Currency        Units  P/L      Equity
AUD/USD     462    -2.63    100.00
EUR/USD     495    -5.18    94.82
GBP/USD     371    -5.18    89.64
GBP/JPY     308    -5.76    83.86
USD/CHF     281    -2.42    81.36
USD/JPY     879    -5.73    75.63
EUR/CAD     629    12.90    88.37
EUR/CAD     184    0.82    89.20
EUR/USD     189    0.56    89.76

The Wages of Growth...

...are devastating pain. It is always so hard to accept, but the price of going for the huge gains is horrifying drawdowns. I've been through drawdowns this bad before, and charged on to new equity highs. It isn't a bit of fun to go through it, however.

All the currencies have been doing a whole lot of leaping in one direction and turning back around with nearly zero net change for the week. This strategy hates that kind of action, but that's what we have.

We've already lost one trade this week... a short in the Aussie. We're close to losing another, and the rest of the open trades are looking pretty bad too. We shall see.

Short 462 AUD/USD at 0.9101 stopped out at 0.9157 for a loss of -$2.61 or -2.54%

Open trades:
Short 371 GBP/USD at 1.5062 with stoploss at 1.5201
Short 495 EUR/USD at 1.3660 with stoploss at 1.3764
Short 308 GBP/JPY at 136.15 with stoploss at 137.82
Short 629 EUR/CAD at 1.3940 with stoploss at 1.4021
Short 879 USD/JPY at 90.16 with stoploss at 90.75

Current account equity: $85.07

Results for the Week of 3/7-3/14

Beginning equity: $156.20

Currency      Units    P/L      Equity

AUD/USD    588    -3.73    152.45
USD/JPY    758    -8.21    144.18
USD/CHF    771    -6.94    137.08
EUR/USD    615    -7.46    129.62
EUR/CAD    436    -7.32    122.30
GBP/JPY    369    -8.20    114.10
GBP/USD    551    -9.16    104.94
USD/JPY    273    -0.81    104.19
AUD/USD    304    -1.54    102.65

Still Waiting...

...for a decent move in EUR. We've been chopping around for the past couple of weeks. I expect we'll see further downside, but so far nothing dramatic has happened. This has been pretty tough on the account equity, since the strategy really seeks to catch large trending moves, which are admittedly more rare than rangebound action.
 So we've lost the AUD/USD short, and we've triggered into the EUR/CAD short. USD/JPY is looking pretty strong, and we are unfortunately short... but that's how it goes. Otherwise, we're either at small profits or losses on the open positions. Still, there is much of the week to go...

Short 588 AUD/USD at 0.9062 stopped out at 0.9125 for a loss of -$3.73 or -2.39%


And the new position:
Short 436 EUR/CAD at 1.3923 with stoploss at 1.4094


Current account equity: $150.12

A Nice Turn So Far

GBP turned lower quite dramatically, so what was once a sizable loss has turned back to a profit. It's early, and anything can happen... but the pattern drawn on the chart is quite bearish for the near term. That pattern would be a failed breakout of the upper line of a month-long down-trending channel.
 Several trades have triggered since the last update. They are all sitting at slight profits or losses, with GBP/JPY once again sporting a nice profit of 130+ points! The only trade yet to trigger is EUR/CAD, which we will very likely be shorting sometime soon.

Short 369 GBP/JPY at 135.69 with stoploss at 137.70
Short 615 EUR/USD at 1.3586 with stoploss at 1.3707
Long 771 USD/CHF at 1.0772 with stoploss at 1.0676
Short 758 USD/JPY at 89.71 with stoploss at 90.69
Short 588 AUD/USD at 0.9062 with stoploss at 0.9125

Not much to do but wait...

Current account equity: $170.76

Holding On

Well, this past week's results were underwhelming to say the least. We looked just fantastic in the early part of the week, with the trading campaign having finally ticked back into positive territory. The pairs all turned against the open trades midweek, handing us some disappointments. Still, there is nothing to do but follow the strategy.

We have a holdover short in GBP which was very nearly stopped out this morning. It has managed to hold on by some miracle. The longer it holds up, the greater the chances it becomes a profit... so I'm hoping we've seen a near-term high in GBP.

No other trades have triggered yet, so there isn't much to say.

Last week's standout EUR/CAD short was very nicely profitable, and two small gains were taken on the long side of Oz. The OneNightStand short in EUR/CAD failed to survive the Asian session, capping off a disappointing week with another disappointment. Still... we press on!

Current account equity: $150.66

Results for the Week of 2/28-3/7

Beginning equity:              183.16

Currency      Units  P/L     Equity
EUR/USD    950    -9.15    173.86
USD/CHF    1244    -8.48    165.38
USD/JPY    771    -10.28    155.04
GBP/JPY    311    -10.18    144.87
EUR/CAD    403    -3.94    140.91
EUR/CAD    707    12.44    153.35
AUD/USD    424    1.99    155.34
AUD/USD    409    0.86    156.20

Going Nowhere by the Senic Route

So we've lost the USD/JPY trade... and as painful as it was, I consider myself fortunate to have avoided a giant dose of pain. I stopped out at 89.41... but the pair has blasted higher to 90.28 after this morning's much anticipated bogus government number. (Really, is there any other kind of government number?)
So:

Short 771 USD/JPY at 88.22 stopped out at 89.41 for a loss of -$10.28 or -6.22%

We've triggered into a OneNightStand trade... hopefully pressing our advantage in the EUR/CAD short.

Short 403 EUR/CAD at 1.3961 with stoploss at 1.4061

The other open trades are all sitting at various losses... some worse than others. The GBP/JPY short is about 40 points from being stopped out, even with a nearly 300 pip stop. Man, that is one volatile pair!

All in all, there's been plenty of action... but not much change in equity over the past couple of days.

Current account equity: $166.24

Not Much to Say

So far, nothing dramatic has happened. The EUR has continued to claw higher, as has the GBP. Cable still looks especially bearish. Euro looks poised for a short-squeeze, with a possible bear trap having sprung early Tuesday morning. Longer term, I think Euro goes back to parity and below, but anything can happen short-term... especially considering that there is reportedly a record short position in Euro right now. It generally pays to be on the other side of record positions.

We've triggered into the short USD/JPY trade. It has done almost nothing but drift higher ever since. It had 8 pips of profit for a few minutes, but has stayed in the red all morning.

Short 771 USD/JPY at 88.22 with stoploss at 89.41

The only bright spot is still the EUR/CAD short, showing a 160 pip profit right now.

Current account equity: $166.20 (which could be worse!)

Pain Begins Anew

We've lost two trades so far... the EUR and CHF. Again, not the least bit unusual, nor the least bit fun.

Long 1,244 USD/CHF at 1.08 stopped out at 1.0727 for a loss of  -$9.15 or -5.00%
Short 950 EUR/USD at 1.3544 stopped out at 1.3640 or a loss of  -$8.48 or -4.87%

The GBP and GBP/JPY shorts are holding up, but not nearly so well as they had been starting out. The GBP still looks incredibly weak, so there's still hope for both trades.

We've triggered into the AUD/USD on the long side. I'm not optimistic about that one, even with the EUR's stubborn refusal to get down and stay down. Still, my opinion doesn't matter one whit.

Long 424 AUD/USD at 0.9059 with stoploss at 0.8951

We do have one standout performer, and that would be the EUR/CAD short. The EUR is no help, but the Loonie has been on quite the little tear of late. This trade has been up as much as 220 pips, and is now sitting about +145. There's still time for anything to happen... especially with the mighty NFP coming out on Friday. Stay tuned!

Current account equity: $170.34

You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet!

This past week, this strategy has demonstrated once again that it isn't about the number of wins, but about their size relative to losses. One trade was responsible for the majority of the week's gains... the GBP/JPY short. There is no doubt that looking at a 38.4% drawdown in equity is massively painful... ($200 down to $123.12) but that is the price one must pay for the opportunity to double an account in a couple of days. We haven't seen that happen yet in this campaign... but it will eventually.
 There is also great temptation to change strategies when big wins roll in... but that temptation will be resisted to the last.
 New trades have already started coming in with a pretty hard break in the US Dollar's favor this morning... so there's no time to rest on this past week's laurels. The new positions I'll be managing for this week are as follows:

Short 541 GBP/USD at 1.5033 with stoploss at 1.5202
Short 311 GBP/JPY at 132.87 with stoploss at 135.82
Long 1,244 USD/CHF at 1.08 with stoploss at 1.0727
Short 950 EUR/USD at 1.3544 with stoploss at 1.3640
Short 707 EUR/CAD at 1.4237 with stoploss at 1.4366

All except GBP/JPY are showing profits so far. The week is very young... but the Dollar is very strong!

Current account equity: $198.59

Results for the week of 2/21-2/28

Beginning Equity: $147.18

Currency        Units      P/L      Equity

AUD/USD       489       -3.68    143.47
EUR/CAD       476       -4.17    139.30
USD/CHF       736       -6.87    132.28
EUR/USD       533       -7.38    124.90
USD/JPY       308       -1.17    123.58
GBP/JPY       302       -0.47    123.12
GBP/JPY       628       41.89    165.01
USD/JPY       379       7.79      172.80
EUR/CAD       317      2.27     175.07
GBP/USD       393       7.10     182.17
GBP/USD       348       0.99      183.16